* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 74 77 78 75 69 61 55 49 41 36 V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 74 77 78 75 69 61 55 49 41 36 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 70 71 71 68 62 55 48 42 37 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 14 12 12 7 7 9 11 10 6 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -2 0 0 1 4 3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 6 359 357 359 334 254 238 248 255 261 300 335 313 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.5 25.0 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 149 144 140 134 129 126 122 117 117 112 106 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 74 70 67 68 68 67 60 60 57 54 52 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 29 30 31 34 34 35 35 36 33 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR 43 51 50 38 46 63 73 78 88 88 84 68 53 200 MB DIV 108 100 76 82 83 94 74 40 37 42 -13 1 4 700-850 TADV -5 -4 0 0 5 6 4 6 8 10 1 8 1 LAND (KM) 1243 1217 1195 1169 1148 1130 1164 1202 1282 1370 1458 1549 1659 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.1 115.5 116.0 116.5 117.5 118.7 120.1 121.7 123.2 124.6 126.2 127.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 30 20 13 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 14. 15. 12. 7. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 10. 4. -4. -10. -16. -24. -29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##