* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 79 81 77 73 64 57 49 39 32 27 V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 79 81 77 73 64 57 49 39 32 27 V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 77 78 76 71 64 57 50 44 39 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 23 12 11 6 5 10 8 11 7 6 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 2 3 0 4 3 2 0 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 350 344 341 322 298 235 249 265 276 266 272 308 257 SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.3 24.7 24.1 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 144 140 137 131 125 122 118 116 109 102 100 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -50.9 -51.5 -50.4 -51.2 -50.8 -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 72 68 66 68 68 66 60 60 59 56 50 47 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 30 32 34 33 35 34 34 34 31 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR 43 43 32 47 56 57 73 85 102 84 80 70 60 200 MB DIV 109 70 77 64 73 74 66 20 45 -10 -34 -19 -9 700-850 TADV -2 -1 1 4 7 2 5 5 8 8 7 4 1 LAND (KM) 1205 1175 1149 1128 1112 1143 1183 1243 1310 1413 1526 1646 1744 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.3 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.8 18.9 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.4 115.9 116.4 116.9 118.2 119.7 121.1 122.4 124.2 126.3 127.9 129.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 10 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 12 8 5 3 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 10. 10. 10. 10. 5. 2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 7. 3. -6. -13. -21. -31. -38. -43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##