* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 86 86 85 79 74 68 59 49 40 31 25 V (KT) LAND 80 83 86 86 85 79 74 68 59 49 40 31 25 V (KT) LGE mod 80 85 86 84 81 73 65 59 52 45 40 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 24 16 14 7 3 4 10 10 6 5 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 2 3 3 4 4 4 0 4 0 0 7 SHEAR DIR 346 346 332 313 316 288 247 267 271 299 274 306 301 SST (C) 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.5 25.3 24.5 24.0 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 140 137 135 130 126 122 117 116 107 101 99 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.0 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 69 66 69 68 65 64 59 60 56 54 51 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 33 34 33 32 34 35 36 34 30 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 44 35 51 66 68 75 87 100 96 80 76 64 68 200 MB DIV 63 75 69 65 61 45 38 23 13 -34 -25 -32 -28 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 5 4 4 6 7 11 8 11 2 3 LAND (KM) 1165 1143 1126 1133 1145 1189 1221 1266 1345 1433 1526 1632 1740 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.1 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.3 115.8 116.3 117.0 117.6 118.8 120.0 121.3 122.9 124.6 126.4 127.9 129.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 9 8 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 5 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -19. -23. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 7. 10. 10. 7. 2. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 5. -1. -6. -12. -21. -31. -40. -49. -55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##