* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 85 83 81 78 67 61 51 43 32 24 19 V (KT) LAND 85 86 85 83 81 78 67 61 51 43 32 24 19 V (KT) LGE mod 85 86 85 81 77 68 60 54 47 41 37 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 14 11 6 3 6 8 12 3 5 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 2 0 3 5 6 3 3 0 2 0 3 6 SHEAR DIR 334 325 322 311 324 332 267 279 286 281 304 297 309 SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.9 24.2 23.9 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 138 136 133 128 126 121 115 112 104 100 99 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -50.8 -51.3 -50.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 68 71 70 67 67 62 61 60 54 53 49 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 32 32 32 34 32 34 33 32 27 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 34 54 69 60 60 79 85 101 75 82 67 61 73 200 MB DIV 71 87 54 63 61 75 16 22 -4 -16 -7 -33 -17 700-850 TADV -1 2 4 4 0 4 6 9 4 8 5 3 3 LAND (KM) 1132 1126 1125 1144 1167 1189 1232 1298 1370 1450 1575 1698 1796 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.3 18.2 18.8 19.1 19.1 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.2 116.7 117.4 118.0 119.1 120.4 121.9 123.5 125.3 127.2 128.7 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 8 8 9 9 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -20. -25. -29. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 2. 5. 4. 1. -5. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -18. -24. -34. -42. -53. -61. -66. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##