* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 90 88 86 79 69 60 48 36 26 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 90 91 90 88 86 79 69 60 48 36 26 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 91 88 84 78 68 60 52 45 39 35 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 12 8 5 5 11 11 6 7 6 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 2 2 3 6 1 4 -3 -1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 320 305 291 310 314 278 263 265 286 232 270 244 270 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.6 25.3 24.6 24.0 23.8 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 132 130 126 124 118 115 108 101 98 97 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 67 64 57 59 57 53 49 40 35 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 32 33 33 34 34 35 32 28 26 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 52 70 58 61 71 99 103 105 80 85 72 84 93 200 MB DIV 84 62 60 51 81 21 14 -11 -14 -9 -45 -48 -21 700-850 TADV 1 4 6 0 1 7 9 9 7 8 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 1123 1125 1132 1151 1171 1207 1274 1343 1410 1503 1632 1732 1800 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.7 18.5 18.9 19.1 19.1 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.7 117.3 117.9 118.5 119.8 121.3 122.8 124.4 126.1 127.9 129.1 129.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -20. -26. -31. -35. -39. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 2. -3. -8. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -4. -11. -21. -30. -42. -54. -64. -71. -77. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##