* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 99 97 95 84 75 64 51 42 30 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 100 101 99 97 95 84 75 64 51 42 30 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 101 97 91 85 73 64 57 50 45 40 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 7 2 1 3 2 10 4 7 13 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 4 10 7 6 0 0 -3 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 313 304 311 311 160 203 307 292 256 261 241 271 282 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.4 24.9 24.2 23.7 23.6 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 132 131 129 126 122 117 111 103 98 95 94 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -50.9 -51.3 -50.6 -51.3 -51.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 70 66 67 63 60 57 58 53 47 44 38 27 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 31 33 32 33 33 29 29 25 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 59 49 51 56 75 89 110 88 73 69 82 95 103 200 MB DIV 71 67 55 70 78 33 40 -11 -33 -14 -15 -13 -28 700-850 TADV 3 4 1 0 3 6 7 3 3 5 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1118 1132 1151 1178 1192 1249 1297 1366 1413 1489 1596 1671 1712 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.5 17.2 18.0 18.9 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.3 117.9 118.5 119.0 120.4 121.8 123.3 124.9 126.4 127.8 128.7 129.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -22. -29. -35. -42. -46. -51. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 0. -1. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -5. -16. -25. -36. -49. -58. -70. -79. -86. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##