* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 05/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 25 31 39 49 57 66 74 81 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 22 25 31 39 49 57 66 74 81 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 18 18 17 18 21 25 32 41 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 26 25 25 20 15 6 6 11 13 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 2 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -6 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 317 319 318 313 311 322 316 356 73 84 78 66 62 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 168 166 163 162 161 161 161 160 161 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 -53.1 -52.4 -53.3 -52.6 -53.3 -52.5 -53.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 78 80 81 81 81 84 82 83 83 83 79 77 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 7 10 13 15 18 21 26 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -68 -63 -55 -63 -63 -53 -37 -18 4 18 37 50 200 MB DIV 68 71 53 66 92 88 114 78 115 87 117 141 164 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 605 600 596 600 607 584 581 617 654 730 845 982 1083 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.5 13.0 13.3 13.3 13.2 12.7 11.9 11.0 10.3 LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.5 102.8 103.2 103.7 104.5 105.2 105.9 106.4 106.9 107.6 108.5 109.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 82 86 87 89 88 88 85 75 64 55 54 67 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 15. 25. 33. 37. 40. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 22. 26. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 7. 7. 7. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 19. 29. 37. 46. 54. 61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 05/31/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 05/31/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##