* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 90 87 83 72 61 51 40 27 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 93 90 87 83 72 61 51 40 27 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 93 88 82 75 64 55 47 41 36 32 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 11 7 3 6 8 11 6 11 13 29 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 7 6 1 1 5 -2 0 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 298 302 305 272 276 242 263 269 244 257 244 266 254 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.6 24.9 24.1 23.7 23.6 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 131 129 127 125 121 118 111 102 98 95 94 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 63 59 58 56 50 46 44 31 20 14 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 30 31 32 31 31 31 29 26 25 23 19 850 MB ENV VOR 50 49 56 70 86 97 100 68 71 68 113 93 34 200 MB DIV 73 58 52 61 42 42 11 7 19 4 -28 -28 -40 700-850 TADV 5 0 1 4 6 6 9 8 8 4 0 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 1126 1152 1181 1198 1218 1283 1371 1446 1496 1576 1702 1787 1820 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.8 118.5 119.1 119.7 121.1 122.8 124.3 125.8 127.3 128.9 129.9 130.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -19. -26. -32. -37. -42. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -8. -10. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -23. -34. -44. -55. -68. -77. -86. -95. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##