* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 05/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 19 22 28 36 44 53 62 71 73 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 19 22 28 36 44 53 62 71 73 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 18 17 16 17 19 23 29 35 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 24 27 29 25 18 14 6 7 7 4 6 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 1 -3 -6 0 -3 1 -5 -3 2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 311 308 308 310 313 319 329 11 24 83 95 77 67 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 169 168 166 164 162 161 161 161 160 161 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 83 84 82 81 83 83 78 73 71 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 10 12 15 17 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -44 -44 -50 -58 -44 -38 -24 0 15 23 35 48 200 MB DIV 63 50 55 66 69 75 96 49 73 57 119 134 128 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 2 1 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 592 594 597 599 602 592 602 636 674 739 851 975 1100 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.6 11.9 11.2 10.6 LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.2 102.6 103.1 103.6 104.4 105.2 105.9 106.4 106.9 107.7 108.7 109.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 76 82 86 89 88 88 85 75 64 56 55 70 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 15. 25. 33. 37. 40. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 16. 20. 25. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 33. 42. 51. 53. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 05/31/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 05/31/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##