* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/31/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 84 81 80 71 60 51 41 29 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 86 84 81 80 71 60 51 41 29 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 85 79 74 69 60 53 46 41 37 33 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 3 3 9 11 5 12 21 31 20 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 6 4 5 2 1 2 -3 1 4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 293 306 294 284 307 266 285 240 250 237 247 247 261 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.2 24.4 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 130 128 127 123 118 114 104 99 99 98 96 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.6 -51.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 61 61 61 56 51 48 42 30 18 11 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 32 31 33 31 30 29 28 26 25 21 15 850 MB ENV VOR 53 55 74 89 87 98 76 74 72 82 106 74 23 200 MB DIV 66 64 74 57 47 32 -3 -7 -11 -15 -15 -34 -55 700-850 TADV -1 1 4 4 4 9 9 8 6 0 0 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1168 1197 1216 1235 1257 1305 1396 1460 1496 1529 1569 1610 1653 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.4 17.0 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.4 19.3 19.3 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.5 119.1 119.7 120.4 121.7 123.5 125.1 126.2 126.9 127.3 127.8 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 7 5 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -17. -23. -29. -35. -39. -42. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -10. -19. -30. -39. -49. -61. -71. -81. -92. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##