* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 05/31/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 30 39 47 55 65 76 86 91 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 30 39 47 55 65 76 86 91 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 20 22 25 30 37 45 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 31 31 27 20 10 4 5 7 8 12 19 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -4 -7 -4 -2 -2 -4 -6 0 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 306 308 310 312 320 318 346 26 49 77 88 74 71 SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 168 166 163 161 159 160 161 159 160 159 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.4 -53.2 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 83 83 84 84 85 83 84 84 82 76 73 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 8 11 13 16 20 23 29 33 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -45 -53 -62 -54 -48 -32 -13 8 16 22 38 41 200 MB DIV 56 57 68 69 71 124 74 91 73 127 136 166 150 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 3 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 575 577 578 580 575 567 598 626 692 798 930 1046 1115 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.1 12.4 11.7 11.1 10.9 LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.6 103.1 103.7 104.2 105.1 105.9 106.4 106.9 107.6 108.7 109.7 110.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 78 83 86 86 87 86 74 62 53 51 72 77 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 27. 34. 40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 7. 7. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 30. 40. 51. 61. 66. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 05/31/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 05/31/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##