* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/31/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 103 99 95 82 66 53 38 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 105 103 99 95 82 66 53 38 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 102 97 89 82 69 59 51 44 38 32 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 11 13 24 25 20 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 3 1 0 2 5 0 0 6 7 0 0 SHEAR DIR 271 283 297 306 286 259 264 236 252 249 263 248 301 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.0 25.6 24.8 24.2 24.0 23.8 23.8 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 130 129 127 123 119 109 101 98 96 96 94 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 65 62 58 54 52 47 42 29 17 9 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 33 31 32 33 33 30 28 25 24 22 18 12 850 MB ENV VOR 59 73 87 86 87 88 67 76 55 89 93 104 41 200 MB DIV 64 71 47 34 29 0 4 -13 -23 -13 -9 -39 -48 700-850 TADV 1 6 6 5 5 13 12 13 5 0 3 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1228 1248 1262 1278 1299 1377 1453 1480 1496 1514 1523 1548 1582 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.1 18.0 18.8 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.1 119.7 120.4 121.1 122.7 124.4 125.7 126.4 126.8 127.0 127.3 127.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 6 3 2 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -27. -35. -43. -50. -55. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. -1. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -12. -17. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -6. -10. -23. -39. -52. -67. -78. -91.-102.-113. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##