* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 05/31/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 30 37 48 58 69 76 91 95 96 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 30 37 48 58 69 76 91 95 96 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 22 24 28 35 44 54 62 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 25 16 9 9 8 7 10 14 17 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 -1 -5 -3 -5 -4 2 2 2 10 SHEAR DIR 301 305 316 323 324 331 59 48 76 80 74 68 78 SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 168 167 165 163 162 161 161 161 158 158 158 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 84 85 86 85 84 82 83 82 78 74 71 72 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 8 9 10 13 15 20 22 29 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -48 -62 -53 -42 -36 -12 8 18 29 34 32 24 200 MB DIV 69 86 91 80 87 95 69 90 105 145 154 108 134 700-850 TADV 2 4 3 1 0 0 2 4 3 1 0 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 597 594 592 588 577 572 602 649 724 826 917 971 965 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.2 12.7 12.1 11.7 11.6 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.1 103.6 104.1 104.6 105.2 105.8 106.3 106.8 107.6 108.5 109.2 109.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 86 88 87 88 88 85 76 66 57 53 68 81 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 23. 35. 37. 41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 23. 33. 44. 51. 66. 70. 71. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 05/31/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 87.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 05/31/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##