* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 123 120 115 103 85 66 47 31 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 123 120 115 103 85 66 47 31 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 120 118 111 102 92 75 63 53 45 38 32 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 5 7 7 4 10 15 27 22 13 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 -1 1 5 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 232 301 323 274 273 255 228 241 240 246 247 258 242 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.6 25.0 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.4 23.2 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 127 124 119 112 102 98 95 91 89 88 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 62 60 57 53 48 46 41 27 19 12 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 34 34 31 32 30 27 25 23 21 16 12 850 MB ENV VOR 71 76 72 76 79 67 69 59 57 73 81 86 53 200 MB DIV 61 28 16 36 15 -1 -16 -19 -14 -6 -13 -25 -43 700-850 TADV 4 3 2 0 5 9 8 8 3 1 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1266 1277 1293 1307 1328 1402 1444 1473 1491 1478 1457 1443 1430 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.7 18.7 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.7 120.3 121.1 121.8 123.5 125.1 126.2 126.6 126.7 126.7 126.7 126.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 9 8 4 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -17. -28. -40. -50. -60. -68. -73. -78. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -2. 0. -4. -8. -11. -13. -17. -24. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 0. -5. -17. -35. -54. -73. -89.-103.-115.-127.-135. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##