* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022015 06/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 54 68 80 90 99 107 109 100 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 54 68 80 90 99 107 109 100 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 34 35 40 51 64 77 88 95 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 25 16 12 11 2 4 1 2 3 13 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -3 -8 -2 -3 1 1 6 3 8 6 SHEAR DIR 305 309 307 301 299 19 83 357 333 134 61 85 104 SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.2 29.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 166 164 163 163 166 166 165 166 166 162 154 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 85 86 87 85 85 83 83 81 77 77 76 76 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 10 11 14 18 22 28 34 37 39 36 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -50 -44 -33 -31 -21 12 36 48 56 57 43 29 200 MB DIV 113 111 110 96 130 84 100 94 132 128 101 104 66 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 0 -1 2 3 3 1 0 -2 -8 -1 LAND (KM) 599 582 561 546 532 560 630 675 691 683 651 599 537 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.3 12.6 12.1 11.9 12.1 12.7 13.9 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.6 104.1 104.3 104.5 104.7 104.6 104.3 104.2 104.6 105.4 106.6 107.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 3 2 2 3 2 0 4 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 89 87 86 87 88 88 88 89 89 87 82 54 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 21. 30. 38. 43. 45. 41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 8. 9. 9. 8. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 24. 38. 50. 60. 69. 77. 79. 70. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 TWO 06/01/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 87.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 TWO 06/01/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##