* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 118 108 97 73 51 33 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 125 124 118 108 97 73 51 33 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 125 121 112 101 91 72 58 47 39 31 25 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 5 6 8 7 7 12 25 28 24 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 2 4 4 0 -1 6 2 6 5 0 SHEAR DIR 274 301 301 270 238 255 203 230 234 249 236 223 203 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.4 24.6 23.9 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.2 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 129 126 123 117 108 98 94 93 92 90 89 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 62 63 60 55 49 48 39 30 18 10 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 35 32 33 31 27 25 23 21 20 15 10 850 MB ENV VOR 62 58 65 71 74 58 68 50 69 60 80 76 72 200 MB DIV 33 7 24 20 3 -8 0 -12 -1 2 -18 -31 -33 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 5 14 12 10 7 2 5 -3 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1286 1299 1317 1336 1361 1417 1449 1467 1439 1401 1354 1317 1288 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.1 18.1 19.1 19.7 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.8 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.2 120.9 121.7 122.5 124.0 125.6 126.4 126.4 126.1 125.7 125.5 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 9 7 3 2 2 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -14. -20. -33. -45. -57. -67. -75. -81. -85. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 8. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. -28. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -7. -17. -28. -52. -74. -92.-110.-122.-133.-145.-156. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##