* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022015 06/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 59 68 78 85 97 106 106 94 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 59 68 78 85 97 106 106 94 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 35 36 39 45 52 60 68 79 89 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 21 12 10 7 1 3 6 3 3 9 12 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -5 -3 -1 0 1 -2 2 3 8 6 SHEAR DIR 304 309 307 299 311 26 261 271 196 132 64 76 103 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.2 29.8 29.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 163 163 161 164 165 163 166 165 162 156 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 88 88 86 85 82 81 82 80 76 72 72 73 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 16 19 25 30 37 41 41 37 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -37 -26 -23 -18 3 23 49 58 71 73 44 45 200 MB DIV 100 105 84 120 105 109 98 135 119 137 103 68 49 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 0 -1 1 3 1 0 0 -3 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 554 537 521 516 511 567 618 637 624 568 511 457 461 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.2 12.6 12.4 12.6 13.3 14.3 15.7 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.0 104.2 104.4 104.5 104.6 104.2 104.1 104.4 104.9 105.7 107.0 108.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 1 3 2 0 3 5 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 84 85 86 87 87 88 88 89 88 87 71 30 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -11. -9. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 9. 14. 24. 30. 41. 47. 47. 39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 7. 8. 9. 8. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 29. 38. 48. 55. 67. 76. 76. 64. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 TWO 06/01/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 85.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 TWO 06/01/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##