* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 112 102 90 81 61 45 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 112 102 90 81 61 45 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 120 112 103 93 83 66 53 43 36 29 23 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 11 9 6 10 16 27 25 19 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 3 5 5 1 3 6 1 6 6 4 SHEAR DIR 291 274 241 238 236 213 221 229 249 245 231 196 199 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.5 24.7 24.0 23.7 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 130 126 122 117 108 99 96 94 93 91 90 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -50.8 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 61 61 58 54 49 44 33 24 14 8 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 32 33 30 27 25 23 21 18 13 7 850 MB ENV VOR 56 66 77 75 67 71 58 64 72 79 87 80 72 200 MB DIV 17 19 16 -7 5 1 0 14 -1 -23 -20 -30 -33 700-850 TADV 0 1 6 14 16 8 10 4 3 -3 -2 -5 0 LAND (KM) 1299 1304 1313 1340 1373 1417 1426 1429 1393 1347 1285 1261 1261 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.5 19.3 19.9 20.3 20.6 20.8 20.9 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.7 121.3 122.2 123.0 124.5 125.5 126.1 126.0 125.7 125.1 124.9 124.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 10 9 7 5 3 2 3 2 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 5 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -17. -29. -41. -52. -61. -69. -75. -79. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -5. -9. -12. -14. -18. -23. -30. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -3. -1. 2. 6. 9. 10. 9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -18. -30. -39. -59. -75. -91.-105.-115.-125.-136.-148. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##