* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 52 58 64 80 92 106 111 114 114 105 92 V (KT) LAND 40 45 52 58 64 80 92 106 111 114 114 105 92 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 50 54 59 67 81 97 110 115 114 103 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 13 9 4 1 2 3 11 18 16 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 0 0 -2 0 -2 3 3 7 7 6 SHEAR DIR 299 303 311 329 347 56 108 123 101 83 91 89 94 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.7 28.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 163 163 164 164 162 164 165 162 153 136 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -51.8 -52.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 89 87 87 86 86 85 84 79 73 73 72 71 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 17 20 24 32 36 39 40 38 34 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -21 -19 -17 -12 10 30 49 67 82 59 49 55 200 MB DIV 115 118 145 120 120 116 104 138 110 120 91 74 25 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -2 0 2 4 0 0 0 -2 2 9 LAND (KM) 535 531 528 537 546 564 603 617 616 585 531 483 506 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.0 12.9 13.0 13.7 15.0 16.5 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.9 104.2 104.4 104.5 104.6 104.8 105.0 105.1 105.3 106.0 107.1 108.4 109.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 3 7 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 84 86 87 88 88 88 86 85 84 71 33 19 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 30. 36. 40. 42. 39. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 7. 8. 8. 7. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 18. 24. 40. 52. 66. 71. 74. 74. 65. 52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/01/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 7.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 85% is 9.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 76% is 12.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 73% is 17.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/01/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##