* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 99 87 78 67 49 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 99 87 78 67 49 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 110 100 90 81 72 58 47 39 33 27 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 13 10 10 12 22 27 20 12 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 5 6 0 -1 5 4 5 6 2 2 SHEAR DIR 267 262 236 238 220 196 217 230 244 243 224 206 213 SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.3 24.7 24.2 23.8 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 128 124 121 114 107 101 97 94 95 95 95 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 63 61 58 52 48 41 29 21 14 10 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 33 31 32 30 26 24 23 21 19 15 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 80 83 77 71 70 76 49 71 55 77 74 79 76 200 MB DIV 32 21 -9 -10 -19 5 -19 12 -8 -26 -33 -27 -21 700-850 TADV 4 5 5 7 9 10 6 2 2 -3 -4 -8 -1 LAND (KM) 1329 1345 1366 1395 1430 1459 1457 1412 1344 1306 1298 1282 1259 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.5 122.2 123.1 123.9 125.2 125.8 125.8 125.4 125.1 125.0 124.8 124.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 8 6 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -14. -24. -34. -44. -52. -59. -64. -68. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -5. -11. -15. -17. -19. -22. -29. -33. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -23. -32. -43. -61. -75. -88.-102.-113.-123.-132.-141. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##