* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 59 67 84 98 109 115 115 110 102 86 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 59 67 84 98 109 115 115 110 102 86 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 50 55 60 70 85 100 110 114 110 96 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 9 4 2 2 3 4 14 16 16 24 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 7 5 8 6 7 SHEAR DIR 303 312 324 342 360 47 170 133 100 86 90 97 88 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.2 28.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 163 163 164 163 163 165 166 157 144 129 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 87 87 86 86 86 83 81 77 73 73 71 69 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 17 19 23 29 34 39 41 38 38 32 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -19 -17 -11 1 22 41 59 75 76 55 56 63 200 MB DIV 118 141 120 120 111 107 133 109 126 114 80 44 -5 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 0 0 3 2 0 0 -3 -1 4 8 LAND (KM) 535 531 528 540 553 574 609 609 572 527 478 476 455 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.3 14.3 16.0 17.5 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 103.9 104.2 104.4 104.5 104.5 104.8 104.9 104.9 105.0 106.0 107.8 109.1 109.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 10 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 84 86 87 88 88 87 87 87 86 65 26 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 14. 23. 32. 39. 41. 38. 37. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 27. 44. 58. 69. 75. 75. 70. 62. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/01/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 7.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 95% is 11.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 90% is 14.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 89% is 20.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/01/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##