* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 88 78 67 58 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 88 78 67 58 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 90 80 72 64 51 41 33 27 22 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 8 8 11 19 29 27 20 17 23 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 6 5 5 1 7 5 0 3 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 248 235 238 226 212 232 236 251 242 233 200 209 199 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.5 24.8 24.1 23.8 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 123 119 117 109 100 97 96 94 93 95 96 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 65 64 65 63 61 59 52 46 36 27 19 16 14 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 29 31 29 28 25 23 20 18 15 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 76 72 69 66 66 51 41 43 53 56 48 56 46 200 MB DIV 14 -16 -22 -30 -19 -19 8 -4 -27 -39 -40 -19 -15 700-850 TADV 2 4 8 9 9 9 3 3 -5 -3 -8 -9 -6 LAND (KM) 1315 1339 1372 1398 1412 1419 1374 1313 1259 1236 1244 1221 1168 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.2 20.0 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.7 20.7 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 121.1 122.0 122.9 123.6 124.3 125.3 125.5 125.1 124.5 124.2 124.5 124.2 123.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 8 7 5 3 3 2 0 0 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -11. -21. -30. -39. -47. -52. -56. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -9. -9. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -13. -17. -20. -24. -31. -34. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -2. 0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -22. -33. -42. -59. -74. -89.-100.-110.-120.-128.-132. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##