* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 66 75 93 109 113 118 114 111 98 81 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 66 75 93 109 113 118 114 111 98 81 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 56 61 66 79 98 116 124 123 112 94 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 4 3 5 4 10 15 17 16 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 -5 -5 4 9 8 6 6 4 SHEAR DIR 291 312 319 4 355 59 148 109 82 99 95 111 106 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.9 28.8 27.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 163 164 164 163 163 165 166 165 153 137 127 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 87 85 85 85 84 85 81 77 75 73 70 66 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 20 21 22 25 29 34 36 40 39 39 34 29 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -10 -1 12 22 41 56 65 77 60 64 55 79 200 MB DIV 148 141 124 115 110 108 128 110 99 93 59 5 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 -1 -1 -1 0 3 -5 LAND (KM) 548 552 557 570 584 612 640 626 567 503 445 434 403 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.7 13.5 14.9 16.8 18.3 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.2 104.3 104.4 104.5 104.7 104.6 104.8 105.3 106.5 108.2 109.2 109.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 3 7 11 11 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 96 97 99 100 100 99 101 98 91 51 13 1 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 18. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 9. 17. 25. 29. 35. 33. 34. 27. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 21. 30. 48. 64. 68. 73. 70. 66. 53. 36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 98.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 7.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 89% is 10.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 83% is 13.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 79% is 18.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##