* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * ANDRES EP012015 06/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 80 70 61 50 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 80 70 61 50 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 80 71 63 56 44 35 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 10 9 10 15 25 30 28 18 24 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 9 7 3 4 11 3 1 5 3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 237 229 223 222 225 250 237 241 234 219 207 198 186 SST (C) 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.3 23.8 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.7 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 122 117 114 111 103 97 95 95 95 93 95 98 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 63 60 57 54 45 37 27 22 18 16 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 29 28 24 22 22 19 17 13 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 70 72 71 71 61 34 55 28 48 40 55 51 42 200 MB DIV -27 -30 -37 -13 0 -11 8 -21 -14 -22 -16 -9 -1 700-850 TADV 1 10 17 14 11 6 3 1 -4 -4 -5 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 1320 1340 1366 1376 1376 1350 1274 1220 1198 1176 1160 1154 1142 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.8 20.4 20.6 20.5 20.5 20.6 20.5 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.8 122.6 123.3 123.9 124.5 125.0 124.6 124.1 123.7 123.4 123.3 123.1 122.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 6 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -10. -19. -27. -34. -41. -45. -48. -51. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -11. -16. -18. -24. -28. -31. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -20. -29. -40. -56. -70. -86. -96.-107.-117.-125.-130. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##