* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 57 66 74 95 107 113 115 112 105 93 77 V (KT) LAND 45 50 57 66 74 95 107 113 115 112 105 93 77 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 54 59 65 80 97 112 119 114 101 84 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 5 2 1 5 8 9 12 12 17 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 -4 -3 6 8 8 7 6 3 SHEAR DIR 342 3 15 13 29 100 141 104 93 89 92 88 101 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.8 29.1 28.3 26.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 163 163 163 165 166 163 155 146 132 120 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 86 84 84 83 83 82 77 70 69 70 68 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 21 22 24 32 35 38 41 41 39 35 30 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -13 10 18 26 46 63 80 90 75 67 60 84 200 MB DIV 129 103 113 115 100 136 95 121 84 76 34 0 -15 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 2 7 2 -3 LAND (KM) 556 563 570 577 585 616 567 503 484 429 418 375 209 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.1 12.8 13.2 14.1 15.2 16.5 17.6 19.3 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 104.7 104.7 104.8 104.8 104.8 104.6 105.2 106.6 107.7 108.5 109.1 109.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 1 0 4 7 9 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 99 99 99 99 98 98 99 94 47 20 4 15 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 18. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 19. 25. 30. 34. 34. 32. 26. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 10. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 21. 29. 50. 62. 68. 70. 67. 60. 48. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 98.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 7.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 94% is 10.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 80% is 13.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 80% is 19.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##