* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 71 61 52 44 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 71 61 52 44 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 71 64 57 50 40 32 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 7 9 11 18 28 26 23 25 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 7 4 3 8 7 0 5 5 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 252 244 233 246 244 249 237 238 196 184 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.0 24.5 24.1 24.0 23.8 23.8 24.1 24.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 118 115 112 105 100 99 97 98 101 105 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -50.8 -50.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 61 60 53 51 42 34 27 24 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 24 23 22 20 19 17 14 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 64 65 48 32 31 23 29 33 28 25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -36 -22 -6 -6 0 -19 -13 -26 -30 10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 13 10 11 9 2 2 -5 -1 -12 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1340 1366 1383 1372 1366 1320 1266 1199 1141 1095 1043 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.3 20.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.3 124.0 124.5 124.9 124.8 124.2 123.5 122.8 122.0 121.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 4 2 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -22. -28. -33. -36. -38. -39. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -3. -5. -7. -12. -14. -17. -21. -25. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -19. -28. -36. -53. -66. -78. -89. -99.-109.-112.-114. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##