* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 70 79 89 105 119 123 121 110 102 88 69 V (KT) LAND 55 62 70 79 89 105 119 123 121 110 102 88 69 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 69 76 84 98 112 121 122 112 97 79 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 4 3 2 9 11 13 17 16 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -1 -2 0 3 9 9 4 3 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 353 356 15 27 27 178 103 78 101 108 129 123 134 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.6 28.7 27.7 26.2 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 163 163 163 163 165 165 161 151 140 125 109 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -51.4 -51.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 86 84 85 84 86 82 77 72 71 67 61 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 22 23 25 30 37 40 41 38 36 32 25 850 MB ENV VOR -2 9 16 19 34 61 62 91 86 80 61 71 61 200 MB DIV 99 102 116 108 130 142 100 114 98 42 2 -14 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 577 591 605 612 620 647 617 550 482 432 415 345 147 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.5 12.9 14.0 15.5 17.0 18.2 19.8 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 104.7 104.8 104.9 104.9 104.8 105.1 105.9 107.1 108.2 108.9 109.7 110.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 0 5 8 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 99 98 97 97 96 97 92 78 37 12 4 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 17. 16. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 17. 27. 32. 34. 29. 28. 22. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 10. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 24. 34. 50. 64. 69. 66. 55. 47. 33. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 97.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 7.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 95% is 11.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 95% is 15.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 95% is 23.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##