* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 61 53 44 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 68 61 53 44 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 68 61 55 49 39 31 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 9 14 18 24 28 27 17 25 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 4 3 4 9 2 1 6 6 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 261 241 251 258 245 248 240 223 203 200 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.3 24.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 110 106 103 100 99 98 100 103 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.1 -50.4 -50.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 60 56 52 47 38 30 26 23 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 22 20 19 18 15 13 10 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 60 45 32 32 42 15 27 15 32 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -33 -13 -2 -8 -16 -15 -39 -8 -42 -7 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 14 10 7 4 1 0 -4 -7 -9 -10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1383 1385 1382 1377 1373 1327 1251 1200 1159 1121 1052 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.1 19.9 19.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.1 124.7 125.0 125.2 124.9 124.1 123.4 122.7 121.9 121.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 4 3 3 4 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -20. -25. -30. -32. -33. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -16. -21. -22. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -22. -31. -46. -62. -74. -85. -93.-103.-106.-108. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##