* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 74 84 94 105 119 129 124 118 104 88 69 49 V (KT) LAND 65 74 84 94 105 119 129 124 118 104 88 69 49 V (KT) LGE mod 65 75 85 94 102 113 122 124 119 105 87 69 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 1 0 3 6 11 9 11 15 12 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -2 -2 -3 8 10 9 3 8 5 1 SHEAR DIR 6 330 93 2 195 153 82 128 105 144 146 132 161 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.2 28.0 26.9 25.5 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 163 162 163 165 166 164 157 143 132 117 104 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 82 84 85 86 83 79 74 69 68 65 60 53 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 23 25 29 34 39 38 39 34 29 22 16 850 MB ENV VOR 8 14 25 42 58 66 82 108 98 80 55 61 52 200 MB DIV 93 117 118 141 155 89 116 90 75 28 -10 2 -12 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 1 0 3 -2 -1 -7 LAND (KM) 577 593 609 609 609 602 543 470 383 356 342 193 30 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.8 15.2 16.8 18.3 19.7 21.2 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 104.6 104.6 104.6 104.6 104.7 105.4 106.4 107.4 108.3 108.9 109.6 110.2 STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 3 7 9 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 99 99 100 100 100 98 90 62 21 5 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 10. 19. 28. 28. 28. 22. 14. 5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 10. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 19. 29. 40. 54. 64. 59. 53. 39. 23. 4. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 99.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 7.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 95% is 11.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 95% is 16.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 95% is 23.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##