* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 64 57 48 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 71 64 57 48 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 71 65 59 52 41 32 26 21 18 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 14 17 19 27 28 26 27 24 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 3 7 8 -3 0 2 3 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 248 258 259 255 244 233 234 198 205 187 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.1 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.3 24.1 24.0 24.3 24.7 25.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 113 106 104 102 102 100 99 103 106 109 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 55 53 47 41 37 30 26 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 21 21 20 19 17 14 12 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 52 38 25 27 30 30 23 13 33 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 3 -3 -3 4 -4 -9 -31 -33 0 -42 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 16 11 5 2 1 -4 -1 -11 -6 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1391 1381 1373 1369 1365 1335 1274 1231 1208 1194 1178 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.8 20.0 19.9 19.6 19.2 18.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.0 124.5 124.9 125.0 125.1 124.8 124.2 123.5 122.8 122.2 121.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 4 2 1 2 3 3 4 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -21. -26. -30. -31. -32. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -18. -27. -43. -57. -71. -82. -92. -99.-103.-106. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/03/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##