* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 84 96 106 113 127 127 124 111 96 84 62 45 V (KT) LAND 75 84 96 106 113 127 127 124 111 96 84 62 45 V (KT) LGE mod 75 86 96 105 112 124 132 130 117 98 79 61 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 2 2 4 8 7 12 11 11 14 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -1 -2 2 10 12 9 7 5 -1 9 SHEAR DIR 358 69 99 192 176 75 110 131 118 141 132 153 175 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.6 28.7 27.4 25.9 24.7 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 162 163 163 165 165 160 151 138 122 108 100 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -51.4 -50.5 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 7 7 6 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 85 83 84 82 80 76 70 68 68 63 59 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 32 34 34 38 38 40 36 32 29 22 16 850 MB ENV VOR 9 27 42 54 60 65 94 92 94 57 53 42 58 200 MB DIV 124 124 166 163 111 103 103 53 56 -18 -30 -20 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 5 -3 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 612 614 616 619 623 583 508 438 386 355 252 78 2 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.7 13.2 14.5 15.9 17.3 18.9 20.7 22.2 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 104.8 104.8 104.8 104.7 105.0 106.0 107.0 107.9 108.7 109.4 109.9 110.3 STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 0 1 1 5 8 8 8 9 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 98 98 97 98 99 94 77 38 11 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 8. 10. 18. 19. 22. 17. 10. 7. -4. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 9. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 21. 31. 38. 52. 52. 49. 36. 21. 9. -12. -30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 98.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 7.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 95% is 11.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 95% is 16.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 95% is 23.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##