* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 47 40 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 54 47 40 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 54 48 43 38 30 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 18 21 22 28 27 20 29 24 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 8 13 2 -2 0 7 4 11 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 260 265 263 250 249 230 224 195 196 165 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.6 24.3 24.1 24.0 24.1 24.0 24.0 24.3 24.9 25.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 106 102 99 98 100 99 99 103 109 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 54 52 50 44 40 34 29 29 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 21 21 21 18 18 15 13 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 37 22 27 45 25 33 20 25 22 23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -2 0 10 -2 -16 -12 -45 -9 1 -34 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 11 3 2 1 3 -2 -3 -6 -9 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1390 1377 1365 1354 1343 1320 1251 1224 1223 1198 1155 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.0 20.1 19.9 19.5 19.0 18.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.0 125.2 125.2 125.2 124.8 124.0 123.4 122.9 122.1 121.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 1 1 3 3 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -19. -19. -19. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -4. -8. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -28. -43. -53. -65. -75. -83. -90. -94. -95. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/03/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/03/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##