* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 95 104 112 120 128 130 119 110 92 74 54 33 V (KT) LAND 85 95 104 112 120 128 130 119 110 92 74 54 31 V (KT) LGE mod 85 96 104 111 116 125 129 126 111 91 72 55 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 2 3 5 7 8 9 10 10 18 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 -3 8 4 7 6 8 5 4 8 SHEAR DIR 60 303 245 156 119 108 122 128 136 150 132 152 177 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.1 28.0 26.6 25.5 24.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 164 165 166 164 155 144 129 117 105 95 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -51.1 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 83 84 82 80 76 72 68 65 61 58 55 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 30 32 34 35 38 41 38 39 33 29 22 15 850 MB ENV VOR 30 43 53 57 62 83 105 95 87 55 52 45 63 200 MB DIV 131 158 159 126 107 108 84 82 30 -28 -22 -27 -11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 3 0 -3 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 633 631 630 617 605 537 454 398 401 384 193 24 -2 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.8 15.4 16.8 18.0 19.5 21.2 22.7 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 104.7 104.6 104.7 104.8 105.3 106.4 107.6 108.6 109.3 109.6 110.1 110.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 1 2 4 7 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 99 99 100 99 97 91 60 20 4 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -7. -12. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 16. 17. 9. 3. -7. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 8. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 19. 27. 35. 43. 45. 34. 25. 7. -11. -31. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 98.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 136.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 7.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 95% is 11.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 95% is 16.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 95% is 23.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##