* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 42 33 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 42 33 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 43 37 32 28 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 20 22 28 25 25 28 30 24 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 6 12 9 -2 -1 3 1 7 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 263 262 249 245 231 222 195 199 181 159 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.4 24.4 24.6 24.9 25.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 100 100 100 101 103 103 106 110 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 -51.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 49 48 46 40 36 29 27 27 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 21 21 18 17 14 12 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 27 29 44 35 30 29 18 31 17 35 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -8 -2 -12 -14 -8 -42 -43 4 -31 -15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 4 1 1 4 0 0 -9 -6 -11 -10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1396 1388 1381 1373 1366 1335 1305 1286 1262 1222 1163 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.7 19.4 19.2 18.9 18.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.2 125.4 125.5 125.4 125.3 124.9 124.3 123.7 123.1 122.3 121.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -10. -9. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -13. -16. -18. -22. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -24. -32. -45. -55. -67. -75. -81. -88. -91. -91. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##