* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 129 139 146 151 148 138 121 103 83 62 39 19 V (KT) LAND 115 129 139 146 151 148 138 121 103 83 62 39 31 V (KT) LGE mod 115 129 135 138 139 140 137 123 102 81 63 48 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 5 2 5 6 11 11 11 13 18 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -4 -1 10 9 7 7 9 0 9 6 SHEAR DIR 270 194 170 111 81 98 139 112 135 125 132 163 200 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.5 28.5 27.3 26.0 24.7 23.8 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 164 165 165 166 160 149 136 123 109 99 94 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -50.6 -50.9 -50.6 -51.2 -50.4 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 7 7 6 7 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 83 81 79 77 75 71 68 64 61 57 56 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 34 34 37 38 40 39 37 32 27 19 13 850 MB ENV VOR 41 54 63 70 71 100 98 91 61 54 47 62 44 200 MB DIV 153 159 131 102 107 109 77 56 3 6 -39 -36 -10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 2 -3 -4 -2 0 LAND (KM) 644 635 626 601 577 522 434 398 388 291 100 5 -14 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.3 14.3 16.0 17.5 18.8 20.3 22.0 23.4 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 104.8 104.8 105.0 105.1 105.9 107.1 108.2 109.0 109.6 110.0 110.4 111.0 STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 2 3 5 9 10 8 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 99 98 97 95 93 79 36 8 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -5. -11. -18. -25. -33. -41. -47. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 11. 16. 17. 15. 8. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 9. 12. 16. 14. 11. 4. -3. -13. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 14. 24. 31. 36. 33. 23. 6. -12. -32. -53. -76. -96. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 40.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 96.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 7.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 95% is 11.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 95% is 16.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 95% is 23.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##