* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 43 36 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 43 36 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 40 35 31 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 21 28 28 26 24 29 26 23 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 8 14 9 0 -2 0 2 1 11 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 258 240 240 240 221 216 198 192 160 150 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 24.1 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.3 24.5 24.9 25.4 25.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 100 98 99 100 102 102 105 110 115 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 49 48 45 40 34 31 31 31 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 21 20 18 15 13 11 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 42 31 32 34 24 28 12 23 60 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 5 -10 -25 -13 -14 -41 -13 2 -32 -35 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 0 1 3 -2 -2 -6 -9 -11 -17 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1381 1362 1344 1324 1304 1305 1284 1267 1237 1171 1082 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.1 19.8 19.6 19.3 18.8 18.5 18.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.4 125.4 125.3 125.0 124.7 124.4 123.9 123.3 122.4 121.4 120.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -15. -18. -20. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -22. -30. -43. -57. -68. -77. -84. -92. -95. -97. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/03/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##