* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 129 136 143 144 141 130 114 98 78 57 34 16 V (KT) LAND 120 129 136 143 144 141 130 114 98 78 57 34 23 V (KT) LGE mod 120 131 137 139 141 139 132 115 93 72 55 40 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 4 6 9 7 14 15 24 20 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -5 4 10 7 11 5 8 3 2 11 6 SHEAR DIR 183 144 102 97 100 126 134 125 112 110 124 162 197 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.2 27.9 26.5 25.3 24.3 23.2 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 165 166 164 157 143 127 115 105 93 85 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 76 73 70 68 66 62 59 57 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 35 38 38 41 41 39 38 33 28 21 15 850 MB ENV VOR 45 58 62 64 79 93 93 79 64 56 50 68 41 200 MB DIV 134 114 103 83 105 87 64 38 -11 -6 -33 -5 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 -1 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 665 649 633 600 572 520 437 419 402 244 104 28 -21 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.7 16.4 18.0 19.3 20.7 22.0 23.5 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 104.7 104.7 105.1 105.4 106.5 107.7 108.8 109.6 110.1 110.3 110.8 111.6 STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 4 6 7 9 10 9 7 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 98 99 99 94 88 58 24 4 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -22. -31. -40. -48. -55. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 8. 12. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 6. 8. 12. 13. 11. 10. 3. -4. -14. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 16. 23. 24. 21. 10. -6. -22. -42. -63. -86.-104. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 95.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 71% is 5.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 71% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 71% is 16.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##