* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 38 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 38 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 35 31 27 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 22 28 29 27 26 26 29 30 23 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 14 9 2 -4 -1 0 1 4 9 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 247 244 239 230 231 209 199 186 159 146 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.5 24.6 24.9 25.4 26.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 98 98 99 99 101 104 106 110 116 125 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 46 43 40 36 32 29 29 31 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 20 18 17 16 13 12 10 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 45 34 35 28 29 12 15 12 22 24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 -4 -17 -20 -19 -33 -47 -23 -4 -16 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 2 -1 -1 -8 -7 -11 -13 -18 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1343 1335 1327 1320 1312 1304 1315 1298 1263 1202 1137 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.4 19.1 18.8 18.3 17.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.2 125.1 125.0 124.9 124.7 124.5 124.1 123.5 122.7 121.6 120.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -19. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -14. -17. -19. -23. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -23. -31. -43. -56. -67. -76. -82. -89. -92. -94. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##