* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 124 128 136 137 141 129 116 104 80 58 36 17 V (KT) LAND 120 124 128 136 137 141 129 116 104 80 58 36 17 V (KT) LGE mod 120 122 124 126 128 129 124 108 88 69 52 38 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 1 5 8 9 15 11 10 17 18 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 3 5 4 6 3 3 8 4 5 9 7 SHEAR DIR 120 139 76 74 69 107 104 120 115 118 121 169 204 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.7 28.9 27.5 26.1 24.6 23.5 22.3 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 166 166 165 161 153 139 124 108 96 84 75 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.3 -50.8 -50.2 -50.7 -50.6 -51.3 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 6 6 4 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 73 71 69 66 64 60 58 57 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 34 40 38 42 39 39 40 33 27 21 16 850 MB ENV VOR 50 58 63 76 83 95 93 72 62 56 67 57 23 200 MB DIV 112 92 91 106 113 71 76 22 26 -40 -27 -28 26 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 2 0 -3 -3 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 686 663 640 601 570 546 482 462 366 195 92 55 14 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.9 16.4 18.0 19.6 21.2 22.5 23.8 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 104.8 104.9 105.4 105.9 107.2 108.3 109.3 110.0 110.5 110.8 111.5 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 5 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 98 98 98 94 90 38 30 4 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -7. -14. -23. -32. -42. -50. -58. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 7. 6. 13. 10. 10. 11. 2. -7. -15. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 16. 17. 21. 9. -4. -16. -40. -62. -84.-103. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 95.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##