* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 31 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 31 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 37 33 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 28 29 25 25 18 25 28 25 26 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 8 1 -3 -3 1 4 1 9 9 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 246 247 239 237 226 202 196 171 153 142 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.4 25.9 26.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 98 98 99 100 103 107 110 115 121 127 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.5 -51.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 42 40 38 32 31 29 28 28 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 17 16 15 12 11 8 7 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 28 25 20 24 8 12 4 14 25 7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -8 -17 -19 -34 -57 -43 -15 -27 -33 -18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 0 -2 -1 -5 -7 -12 -12 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1320 1308 1297 1300 1304 1306 1318 1319 1276 1213 1142 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.1 19.9 19.6 19.1 18.6 18.2 17.7 17.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.0 124.9 124.7 124.6 124.5 124.2 123.8 123.2 122.4 121.2 119.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. -25. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -22. -29. -44. -57. -69. -77. -84. -91. -95. -97. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##