* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 112 115 118 123 118 107 88 66 45 27 DIS V (KT) LAND 110 109 112 115 118 123 118 107 88 66 45 27 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 110 108 108 109 111 114 109 95 78 62 49 37 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 8 8 10 9 12 14 18 12 16 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 4 5 8 3 6 5 1 5 1 9 SHEAR DIR 82 72 71 75 83 87 129 122 123 128 163 200 205 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.4 28.3 27.1 25.9 24.7 23.0 21.5 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 165 163 159 147 134 121 109 91 75 69 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 5 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 79 76 74 72 70 67 61 57 51 51 48 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 37 36 37 40 41 40 35 28 22 17 10 850 MB ENV VOR 58 61 68 74 72 90 71 64 65 59 72 55 25 200 MB DIV 101 91 91 106 86 103 60 20 0 -31 -28 -2 7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 0 0 1 0 0 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 714 685 660 624 590 546 530 518 392 255 183 109 92 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.4 14.0 15.3 16.8 18.1 19.4 20.8 22.3 23.8 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.2 105.6 106.1 106.6 107.9 109.2 110.0 110.5 111.0 111.7 112.4 113.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 7 8 8 10 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 93 91 88 84 68 24 12 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -10. -18. -26. -34. -42. -49. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 9. 10. 10. 2. -7. -16. -23. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 8. -3. -22. -44. -65. -83.-103. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/04/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##