* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 26 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 30 27 27 25 21 27 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 1 -1 -3 0 0 2 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 242 235 233 235 207 199 183 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.7 25.0 25.4 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 100 100 102 102 106 110 115 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 41 38 37 34 34 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 17 15 12 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 14 10 23 18 7 8 1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -15 -7 -18 -46 -40 -9 -14 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 -1 -1 0 -5 -5 -10 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1297 1289 1282 1283 1284 1325 1327 1291 1252 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.1 18.6 18.1 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.6 124.4 124.2 124.1 123.9 123.9 123.3 122.5 121.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -10. -14. -17. -19. -18. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -26. -42. -56. -68. -77. -82. -86. -89. -89. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##