* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 97 101 102 107 103 97 79 60 39 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 100 97 97 101 102 107 103 97 79 60 39 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 95 92 92 93 95 91 81 68 55 43 32 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 8 9 10 10 13 17 22 18 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 8 6 7 3 5 9 3 0 3 4 6 SHEAR DIR 47 81 82 83 113 121 141 111 111 136 178 211 168 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.0 27.7 26.6 25.5 24.1 22.2 21.4 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 165 164 163 154 140 128 117 103 83 73 68 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -50.5 -50.9 -50.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 79 74 75 72 73 71 66 60 56 51 49 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 36 35 36 35 38 37 39 33 27 21 15 9 850 MB ENV VOR 62 69 74 80 86 89 66 61 53 63 54 34 21 200 MB DIV 116 94 88 62 56 62 33 37 -28 -15 -32 7 2 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 -3 -2 0 1 1 0 -4 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 682 641 608 581 563 498 496 455 313 171 78 10 100 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 16.1 17.6 18.8 20.1 21.6 23.6 24.8 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.4 105.9 106.5 107.0 108.2 109.4 110.0 110.4 110.9 111.6 112.4 113.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 9 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 94 91 89 75 45 31 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -6. -13. -20. -28. -35. -42. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -9. -9. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 7. 7. 10. 0. -7. -16. -24. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. 1. 2. 7. 3. -3. -21. -40. -61. -79. -98. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 78.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##