* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 29 27 25 21 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -3 -3 0 0 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 234 236 235 228 202 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.8 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 100 100 101 103 107 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 37 37 33 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 13 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 29 22 10 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -5 -19 -48 -55 -27 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 0 -2 -4 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1281 1270 1259 1265 1271 1308 1293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.1 20.0 19.8 19.5 18.9 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.4 124.2 124.0 123.8 123.6 123.4 122.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -26. -40. -55. -64. -70. -74. -78. -80. -79. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##