* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 81 85 88 91 88 73 55 34 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 81 81 85 88 91 88 73 55 34 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 79 76 76 77 79 77 69 58 47 36 28 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 5 7 9 9 22 22 23 14 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 7 12 10 8 13 6 2 6 4 9 5 SHEAR DIR 131 109 86 112 110 128 129 121 130 151 179 166 178 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.5 28.6 27.4 26.2 25.2 23.7 22.2 21.5 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 164 160 150 137 124 114 99 83 75 65 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 75 73 65 60 55 52 48 45 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 38 40 40 40 40 35 28 21 15 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 74 79 82 84 91 73 63 70 62 69 38 25 6 200 MB DIV 122 115 77 90 108 46 28 -5 -45 -27 2 -4 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 -2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 655 616 585 563 542 509 488 400 269 128 47 40 55 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.1 16.6 18.0 19.3 20.5 22.1 24.0 25.4 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.5 106.0 106.8 107.5 108.8 109.6 110.1 110.4 110.9 111.6 112.5 113.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 10 10 8 8 6 7 9 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 95 92 89 57 28 22 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. -5. -10. -17. -23. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. -2. -11. -21. -30. -40. -41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -4. 0. 3. 6. 3. -12. -30. -51. -70. -90.-101. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##