* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 87 91 94 90 84 67 48 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 84 87 91 94 90 84 67 48 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 84 84 85 86 85 78 66 54 43 31 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 7 10 13 11 11 14 13 9 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 7 9 8 4 6 5 5 7 8 6 7 SHEAR DIR 105 107 117 115 107 133 134 145 140 174 184 174 191 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.5 29.0 27.9 26.5 25.2 24.1 22.6 21.8 21.4 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 163 160 154 142 128 114 103 88 79 74 62 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.4 -51.3 -50.6 -50.3 -50.9 -50.5 -51.0 -50.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 74 71 71 70 69 68 61 56 50 47 44 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 37 39 40 38 38 33 27 21 13 8 4 850 MB ENV VOR 83 84 85 98 94 66 54 61 68 57 27 14 -18 200 MB DIV 109 78 67 98 91 24 13 -37 -33 -14 3 -18 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 2 5 1 -1 1 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 591 554 525 489 467 455 401 245 127 72 10 -1 -46 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 14.1 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.7 19.3 20.7 21.9 23.4 25.2 26.6 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.1 106.7 107.4 108.1 109.0 109.7 110.2 110.6 111.3 112.2 113.0 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 8 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 95 89 56 35 35 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -8. -14. -21. -27. -33. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 4. 5. -2. -11. -19. -31. -37. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 2. 6. 9. 5. -1. -18. -37. -55. -77. -92.-107. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##