* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 89 92 92 88 73 55 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 87 89 92 92 88 73 55 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 87 88 89 89 85 75 61 48 34 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 5 7 12 11 19 18 21 16 13 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 13 10 9 8 4 1 3 3 10 5 8 SHEAR DIR 118 111 98 101 102 133 128 137 165 196 172 186 199 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.1 28.5 27.2 25.8 24.3 23.0 22.4 22.2 21.9 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 161 156 149 135 121 105 91 85 83 79 69 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -50.3 -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 68 65 61 56 52 49 45 39 37 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 35 36 36 36 32 27 20 14 7 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 87 84 97 92 78 61 63 55 58 34 27 -5 -5 200 MB DIV 76 39 58 101 91 6 -37 -61 -32 -2 7 33 26 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -1 -2 2 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 560 536 512 480 473 461 333 153 58 -31 -9 -60 -39 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.6 15.3 16.1 16.9 18.3 19.9 21.6 23.3 24.9 26.3 27.4 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.6 107.3 108.0 108.6 109.5 110.1 110.5 111.0 111.6 112.3 113.0 113.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 92 62 34 34 22 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -11. -18. -25. -31. -35. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. -3. -9. -19. -27. -39. -40. -43. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 7. 3. -12. -30. -54. -73. -94.-105.-118. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##