* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 86 85 85 77 59 38 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 85 86 85 85 77 59 38 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 86 85 85 83 75 63 50 35 31 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 14 15 10 14 16 17 15 16 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 8 5 4 9 5 4 5 5 5 9 9 SHEAR DIR 100 110 112 104 104 107 125 155 191 207 189 194 198 SST (C) 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.5 27.7 26.4 24.8 23.2 22.6 22.5 22.0 21.2 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 160 156 149 141 127 111 94 87 86 80 70 64 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 3 1 3 2 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 65 61 58 55 54 53 49 43 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 35 34 35 36 35 29 23 18 12 6 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 83 92 90 80 63 56 53 58 44 32 8 -3 -1 200 MB DIV 55 62 77 98 53 2 -52 -32 -12 7 10 23 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 527 500 483 477 481 411 228 92 -14 -20 -49 -67 -19 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.5 16.2 17.0 17.7 19.2 20.9 22.8 24.6 26.0 27.0 27.7 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.4 108.1 108.7 109.3 109.9 110.5 111.0 111.4 112.0 112.8 113.4 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 8 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 65 36 34 21 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -15. -23. -29. -35. -40. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -9. -19. -26. -34. -43. -47. -46. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 0. -8. -26. -47. -67. -85.-102.-116.-126. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##