* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/05/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 80 80 80 71 55 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 79 80 80 80 71 55 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 79 79 79 77 71 61 49 34 31 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 12 9 9 12 18 16 12 14 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 6 8 10 4 6 4 10 7 13 2 SHEAR DIR 103 112 103 99 112 110 134 170 197 202 182 172 183 SST (C) 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.2 27.4 25.9 24.4 22.8 22.3 22.5 22.1 21.9 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 157 153 146 138 122 106 90 84 85 80 77 82 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 4 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 63 62 58 56 53 52 46 43 39 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 35 36 37 33 27 21 16 9 6 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 88 87 79 60 61 65 58 59 37 25 2 8 -10 200 MB DIV 69 76 95 52 16 -16 -46 -26 -19 -11 7 31 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 0 2 3 2 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 536 512 506 482 464 344 195 96 -39 -18 -35 -66 -27 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.3 17.2 18.1 19.8 21.3 23.1 25.0 26.2 26.8 27.3 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.9 108.5 109.0 109.4 110.1 110.8 111.3 111.7 112.1 112.7 113.0 112.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 10 8 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 38 29 30 14 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -6. -14. -21. -27. -32. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. -1. -9. -18. -25. -35. -39. -44. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 0. -9. -25. -45. -62. -81. -94.-108.-114. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##