* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 88 88 82 72 52 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 86 88 88 82 72 52 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 87 87 86 82 70 56 43 32 29 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 9 8 8 12 16 15 15 16 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 7 9 11 5 5 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 121 122 109 128 110 122 133 171 192 203 190 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.8 28.2 27.4 26.6 24.9 23.5 22.3 22.2 22.4 21.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 146 138 130 111 97 85 83 84 79 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 4 4 2 3 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 63 63 62 61 61 56 51 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 35 36 33 32 27 21 17 11 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 77 66 67 59 61 60 43 20 2 -20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 56 37 27 4 -36 -25 -18 27 17 33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 1 0 1 -1 -2 -4 0 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 509 495 493 475 444 241 107 24 -1 -44 -23 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.1 18.0 18.9 20.8 22.4 24.2 26.0 27.4 28.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.5 109.0 109.5 109.9 110.6 110.9 111.5 112.2 112.8 113.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 9 9 10 8 7 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 31 15 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 416 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -13. -22. -30. -36. -40. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. -1. -1. -9. -17. -24. -32. -41. -40. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. -3. -13. -33. -55. -73. -91.-111.-115.-119. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##